Intellectual Detox

 

Which Form of Government Rules Best? Part I, Introducing the Challengers

Both at Aretae's blog and Athens & Jerusalem I've been getting into kerfuffles over how to rank democracy among the forms of government. Most discussions of government are marred by bad definitions and bad categorization of regimes. So before continuing further, I thought it time to write out how I think about the various forms of government.

A government is the organization that the people with the most guns declare loyalty to. The government thus is the organization that exercises authority over a territory via the threat of the use of force. A system of government is a set of norms for selecting elites and delegating to them authority. All systems, even democracy and monarchy, are really oligarchical in the sense that power is held by an elite. The Iron Law of Oligarchy explains why. So when we categorize governments, we are essentially categorizing them by the process by which the elite are selected. A pure absolutist monarchy is a system in which a king is selected by inheritance. The monarch then selects the ruling elite ministers. A populist democracy is a system in which the masses use elections to select the ruling elite.

We can divide systems of governments into two basic categories - legitimist versus lawless. In a legitimist government, the rulers are selected by a transparent, commonly agreed upon process (written or unwritten). In a lawless process, the rulers come to power via corruption or violence.

In general, history teaches us that legitimist governments are far, far, far better than lawless governments. In a lawless government the corrupt and violent are rewarded with power, so of course, the rulers are generally evil and bloodthirsty. The Yeats effect applies. The only reason a person should ever throw his support toward a movement promoting lawless government is if the alternative is an even worse form of lawless government. Note that lawless governments can turn into lawful government as they evolve a non-violent succession process. China under Mao was lawless - he took power through violence. But China today is in the legitimist category, as leaders are selected through a non-violent process.

Since I think everyone agrees that lawless government is not a good goal, we will not discuss it much further. We'll focus our discussion on what is the best form of legitimist governments.

To make the thought experiment more concrete, imagine that we are part of some small committee, lawfully tasked with creating a new government for a country. Maybe we're Madison in Philadelphia, the U.N. designing post-colonial governments, Lessig working with post-Soviet Georgia, or Bremer in Iraq.

To understand what kind of government we should want, we must first understand the past. The modern political thinker lumps all historical governments into two forms - democratic and autocratic. This is an egregious oversimplification, a reflection of just how ignorant the modern intellectual establishment is of history and philosophy. The modern intellectual is like the devoted Christian who divides the world into only two religions - Christian and Pagan. I used to commit this same sin. I now feel shame that I put structures like the French Ancien Regime in the same bucket as revolutionary tyrannies like Maoist China.

So our the first task as part of our quest to discover the best government, is to define the forms of government in a more coherent way. Here's my best shot; I encourage all comments:

Legitimist Governments

Open Aristocracy (Merchant Aristocracy)

A very limited subset of the population has the power to select the leaders. This aristocracy is selected by some method that allows for upward and downward mobility. Usually the selection is wealth, sometimes it is combined with education/breeding.

Examples: most cities in the Hanseatic League, Venice, Britain 1690-1833, Dutch Republic, Hong Kong, Singapore, colonial Virginia, Liberia pre-1970's

Timocracy

A larger subset of the population has the power to select the leaders. But there is not universal suffrage. The subset is usually selected by a property requirement, or maybe a property and literacy requirement.

Examples: colonial America, U.S. 1789-early 1800's, Rhodesia pre-1980, Britain 1833-1887, various Greek cities, early Roman Republic

Absolutism

Vast authority is vested in a king, emperor or viceroy who comes to power via legal means. Usually the king receives power via birth, but adoption is not too uncommon. The king then selects the ministers who he delegates authority to.

Examples: Louis XIV, Elizabeth I, Marcus Aurelius, Ivan IV, Peter I, Frederick II, Caligula, Petillon in the Belgian Congo, MacArthur in Japan

Hereditary Aristocracy

Authority resides in the hands of nobles who were born into power. There may also be a king, but he does not hold great authority over the nobles.

Examples: Feudal Europe, Manorial England, mid-late Roman empire, 19th century Spain

Mixed Bureaucracy

Unfortunately, this category is a bit of a catch-all. A mixed bureaucracy is a government where various factions share power. These factions may include a hereditary aristocracy, the priests/ideological authorities, civil servants, wealthy merchants, and military generals. Mixed Bureaucracies are hard to generalize about as they can behave very differently depending on the particular elites and the mechanisms by which power is allocated.

Modern China is a good example, as power is shared by the party oligarchy, civil servants, military, and a plutocratic class. France under Louis XVI, with its power sharing based on estates, is another good example.

Examples: European Union, China for most of its history, France under Louis XVI

Ideocracy (Theocracy)

More commonly known under the term theocracy, but the ruling ideology does not always have to involve a deity. The state is controlled by a caste of people who control the ideology. The current ruling elite selects the succeeding ruling elite based on ideological conformity.

Examples: Byzantium Rome, the Papal States, modern Iran, Ottoman Empire, late Soviet Union, East Germany

Authority is allocated by universal or near-universal suffrage elections. The power of the elected officials is only partly checked by other elements, such as a limited monarch or bureaucracy.

Examples: U.S. 1776 to 1789, U.S. from 1830 to 1932, Britain from 1887 to 1945, Wiemar Republic, France from 1870 to 1914, 1918 to 1945, modern Iraq, modern Afghanistan, Congo for one day in 1960, Liberia from 1978 to 1980, South Africa post apartheid, Palestine,

Managed Democracy

The ultimate authority of the state is still nominally vested in an elite chosen by universal suffrage elections. But the populism is greatly tempered by a) a state controlled system of education, run by unelected civil servants b) a bureaucracy run by unelected civil servants c) a court system that is mostly unresponsive to elections.

Examples: the modern western nations - U.S., Japan, Britain, most of western Europe,

Tribal/Clan

The defining factor of a tribal/clan system is that the unit of governance and law is based in a group that shares kinship. In some larger clans, the kinship may be more distant, and some very large clans may have sub-clans which are each extended families sharing the same ethnicity. The details of how tribal leaders are chosen varies. Birth, military prowess, age, and popular acclaim are all common selection methods. Justice between members of two clans is decided by the two clans figuring it out, peacefully or violently.

Examples: pre-colonial Africa, most North American Indians, medieval Ireland, medieval Mongolia, Germanic Tribes, modern Somalia


Lawless Systems of Government

I want to briefly want to go over common forms of unlawful governments. This will aide us in our categorizations of historical regimes.

Counter-Revolutionary

A violent overthrow of the political system that aims to remake society in a right-wing direction.

Examples: Meiji Restoration, Hitler, Sulla

Revolutionary

A violent overthrow of the political system that aims to radically re-make society in a left wing direction.

Examples: Mao, Lenin, Pol Pot, 80's Iran, Gaius Marius

Degenerate Democracy

A nominally democratic government, but in reality the elections are rigged. Politicians use a combination of violence, bribing judges, ballot stuffing, etc to win elections.

Examples: Late Wiemar Republic, Mexico, many African and Latin American countries

Unlawful Autocrat

This is my catch all for any autocrat or junta that takes power illegally, but without a mission to radically remake society. The autocrat may take power by killing the rightful king, military coup, rigging an election, etc.

Examples: Burmese junta, Augustus, Pinochet, Oliver Cromwell, Pertinax, Septimius Severus, Vespasian

Civil War

Multiple factions violently fight for control of the nation.

Examples: Congo in the late 90's, Nicaragua in the 80's, Spain in the late 30's, Russia in the 1920's, etc.

Which historical form of government was best?

After defining the forms of government, and matching historical regimes to the forms, we'll be able to answer the questions about which form is best.

A government can be bad in two ways:

a) it directly provides bad quality of service (infringes on liberty, strangles growth, abuses its citizens)

b) it predictably degenerates into a form of government that provides bad government.

But before we try and answer this question, I want solicit feedback from my esteemed intellectual sparring partners. Do the above categories make sense? Did I mis-categorize any regimes?

I could also use help brainstorming and categorizing historical regimes. Only when we have collected and categorized the data points from history, can we make a strong judgment about which government governs best.

There are a few regimes in particular that I don't know how to place. Napoleon - revolutionary, counter-revolutionary, absolutist? Kim Jong-il - Absolutist, Revolutionary or Theocracy? Leopold in the Congo - unlawful autocrat or Absolutist?

Is the U.S. of 1890 best considered a managed democracy (due to its very strong court system), a popular democracy (due to its wide open elections), or a degenerate democracy (due to the large amount of corruption)? I'm leaning towards popular democracy, because I think the populist element was strong than the courts and corruption, but I could be convinced otherwise.

UPDATE: I just missed a comment by Aretae on his original post: It's back to the key to government...and my claim is that Moldbug's off on a wild goose chase. The issue is what the government doesn't do...not how it's organized.

Having just gone off on this wild goose chase, let me defend myself. As Aretae says, the feeback loop defines the system. Government cannot be constitutionally limited, because, by definition, there is no higher authority that can enforce that law. So there are only three levers through which we can achieve limited government in practice a) by designing the feedback/selection process by which the people running the government are selected, b) by widely distributing guns, c) secession/fragmenting the territory over which a government rules. This post is concentrating on method a) of ensuring limited/good government. Perhaps another time we can discuss methods b) and c).



 

Comments

Here's my confusion.

Let's take Zimbabwe. It's clearly degenerated into some form of lawless government. However, I view the transition from Rhodesia to Zimbabwe as a democratic transition. Surely the process was driven (almost exclusively) by democratic ideals.

I think one doesn't understand Zimbabwe if one doesn't classify it as a democracy, yet I don't think many people will agree with me. Who's wrong?

Here's how I would describe it. Rhodesia lawfully transitioned from a timocracy to a popular democracy. But the popular democracy instantly descended into a degenerate democracy. The degenerate democracy is an unlawful form of government in which parties use substantial amounts of violence and fraud to win elections. Mugabe won power via violent, rigged elections. Under Mugabe's rule the government fell from degenerate democracy to revolutionary tyranny.

The path from popular democracy -> degenerate democracy -> revolutionary tyranny is utterly predictable, especially in Africa. It happens 19 times out of 20. The path from timocracy to popular democracy was not inevitable, it was the result of the specific actions of western progressives. Those responsible should be held to account for their tragic actions.

The progressive of course claims that the problem was not elections. The problem was that elections were violent and then later abolished altogether. The progressive claims that as long as elections are peaceful, legal, transparent, then democracy works.

To me, this is like saying that it is impossible to get black out drunk if you take shots of vodka while walking on a balance beam. It is a true statement - but only because you'll fall off the balance beam before blacking out. Substitute "universal suffrage elections" for taking shots of vodka, and "rule of law" for walking on the balance beam.

I second Buckethead -- excellent work. I personally find it difficult to discuss government without discussing the law (i.e., what is government permitted to do, whatever its form), but beyond mentioning it here I'm-a keep my mouth shut about it for a bit and see if I learn something to my advantage.

Excellent work - you hit what I was going for yesterday at perfidy.org, but in a much more thorough manner.

Some quibbles and questions: why absolutism, rather than monarchism? It seems that all your your examples are monarchs of one sort or another - is there a case where you'd have monarchical style rule without a monarch? Would Hong Kong (pre-1999) be in this category, since the governor was appointed from England, and had fairly strong powers?

I'd argue that the Ottoman Empire was more of a traditional monarchical state than an Islamic theocracy.

Would the Athens of Pericles then be a lawless Autocrat?

Also, do we make distinctions between how we're classifying regimes and how they were understood to be organized? For example, Britain falls under several of your categories, but was at all times at least nominally a monarchy. More nominally, over time, but the king still had real powers into the 18th c.

If it were put to a vote, I'd pull the lever for Napoleon being an absolutist, Kim as an ideocracy, and the US as q populist democracy. Leopoldo, I don't know enough to comment.

Again, great post.

Thanks, buckethead.

Some quibbles and questions: why absolutism, rather than monarchism?

Because most monarchs didn't have much real authority. For instance, the British monarch was pretty much a figurehead after 1800. The Monarch of the Holy Roman Empire didn't really have much control either, it was mainly a hereditary aristocracy of various principalities.

is there a case where you'd have monarchical style rule without a monarch?

Yes, I would indeed include many colonial regimes under absolutism.

I'd argue that the Ottoman Empire was more of a traditional monarchical state than an Islamic theocracy.

It wasn't a theocracy in the style of Iran or Saudi Arabia. It was more in the style of Byzantium. It had a Sultan, but I believe most real power rested in the hands of a large Islamic bureaucracy.

Would the Athens of Pericles then be a lawless Autocrat?

Did he seize power illegally?

For example, Britain falls under several of your categories, but was at all times at least nominally a monarchy.

I'd consider Britain an absolutist system under the late Tudors and Elizabeth, and then a wealth Aristocracy after 1690, and then a popular democracy after 1887. But the transition was partly gradual.

As always, very well written, and more importantly, very well thought.

I don't know if we want to go here right now, but I've got a couple MAJOR objections that I'll eventually want to address...probably through kickoffs chez moi.

1. I think that Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is effectively correct in that ALL legitimate governments are effectively open aristocracies, whatever their nominal form. More specifically, you can predict their behavior as an open aristocracy (your definition) better than by their nominal form.

2. I think that the obsession with guns is overdoing it. While government is the monopoly of force, I think it is very easy to focus on guns and underestimate the power of meaning/ethics. MLK was a hugely powerful figure that effectively beat the government. Ditto Ghandi. And neither through force of arms.


Back to your question, though:


A. What do we call Somalia now? They seem to have got full an-cap going, and while they're still poor, they're doing a lot better than other parts of Africa, and a lot better than when they were governed. I'd call an-cap a 3rd option beyond legit, and lawless.

B. I personally see a HUGE difference between direct democracy and indirect democracy, with direct democracy being MUCH harder to do bad stuff.

C. I think federation, confederacy, etc. are tremendously important issues as well. Do they have a place in your classification? \

D. Size matters. Canada has better government than the US, partly because it's 1/10 the size.

Switzerland in particular, is a small direct democracy-confederacy, with an automatic rifle in every closet, and uninvadable geography.

Are you suggesting that my (1,2,a,b,d) are off-topic. They probably are...


Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is effectively correct in that ALL legitimate governments are effectively open aristocracies

That's kind of what I was getting at when I cited the Iron Law of Oligarchy. But there's still a huge difference between countries in the rules by which that oligarchy is selected. Perhaps I should have rename "Open Aristocracy" to "Wealth Aristocracy" to make it clear that its a rule by an oligarchy of wealth.

While government is the monopoly of force, I think it is very easy to focus on guns and underestimate the power of meaning/ethics. MLK was a hugely powerful figure that effectively beat the government. Ditto Ghandi. And neither through force of arms.

Ghandi and MLK convinced an existing political system (Managed Democracy) to change their policies. So it sill comes back to what political system is most likely to give us policy outcomes we like.

Culture of course matters a ton. But how to change culture is a separate discussion. It's also much less directly malleable/controllable than political system, which is why I talk about it less.

I personally see a HUGE difference between direct democracy and indirect democracy, with direct democracy being MUCH harder to do bad stuff.

How many examples of direct democracy in the world do we actually have? The only examples I can think of are really small scale - New England town meetings, some Swiss Cantons. Any others?

What do we call Somalia now? They seem to have got full an-cap going, and while they're still poor, they're doing a lot better than other parts of Africa, and a lot better than when they were governed.

Does somalia have multiple security agencies operating in geographically overlapping territories? I suspect not, in which case it would not be an-cap in my book. The second question is, how are the leaders of the territories chosen?

Also, while Somalia may be better off than it was ten years ago, it's still far, far worse than it was under colonial rule.

I think federation, confederacy, etc. are tremendously important issues as well. Do they have a place in your classification

Not at the moment. I think it's a separate axis.

Size matters. Canada has better government than the US, partly because it's 1/10 the size.

Size does matter. But there is still a huge variance among governments of the same size. The U.S. is much better run than Mexico or Guatemala or Liberia. There are tons of small countries in the world that have terrible political systems. The very same countries show very wide variance in quality of government depending on their political system. Guatemala under United Fruit was very different than Guatemala today. If we could run correlations, I suspect that type of political system matters a lot more than size.

As per the link I left, yes...somalia has multiple security agencies/legal systems in 1 geographic area. Clan membership, chosen, and non-geographical.

I listened to the somalia link. I would consider Somalia to be in the broad category of tribal/clan government. I missed that category in my taxonomy, so I will add it.